It is that time in the cycle of events, when the ‘common man’, in what he believes is his duty towards the country casts his vote; in the hope that his act is in the best interest of the state; and that, whoever he chooses would lead the state to greater progress through the next five years.
Kerala is going to polls next week, and the streets are alive with the campaigners; the heat of the campaign so high, that at times the blazing sun gets masked. The campaign this time is a lot different from what it used to be. It wouldn’t be unusual, that you answer your phone and you hear your favourite politician’s voice greeting you from the other end, telling you about all his ‘achievements’, and asking you to vote for him. Political parties coming up with apps that voters can download on to their phones; alliances reaching out to the citizens on their favorite social media portals, direct voice messages from the dear old leaders; and something very interesting, the huge hoardings with highly imaginative tag lines that could have adorned the ads of a multinational company – it’s fiesta time!!
Between the Left Democratic Front promising that they would come and set everything right (LDF വരും എല്ലാം ശരിയാവും); and the ruling United Democratic Front claiming that they should continue ruling for the state to progress (വളരണം ഈ നാട്; തുടരണം ഈ ഭരണം); and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) affirming that, they alone can clean up the mess the LDF and UDF has made of Kerala (വഴി മുട്ടിയ കേരളം; വഴികാട്ടാൻ BJP); the people of Kerala, are having a ‘fun time’. An added fun element, to the usual rituals of public meetings and processions, this time is the presence of noted television and film artists and cricketers in the poll arena.
Come elections, there is another group who get busy. The news channels, and those hitherto unheard agencies, who come out with their predictions – the opinion polls and the exit polls. Data presented in colourful charts and graphs predict who would win the polls, and claim to represent the ‘public feeling’, the ‘general trend’ or as they call it the ‘pulse of the people‘. So, we have one group putting forward all the evidences that point towards the UDF coming back to power, and another group which claims that, the UDF has lost all its trustworthiness and this time it is the LDF that would rule the state. It doesn’t stop there, we have a third opinion poll that says, neither the LDF nor the UDF would have an absolute majority and the BJP would be a key player on deciding who would rule, and another prediction that the BJP would get an absolute majority this time and Kerala would see a non-LDF, non-UDF government for the first time.
To this mess of predictions, let me put forward our own statistically proven, extensively researched data. It struck to me, when we were driving across the state that, the names of the candidates across different constituencies followed a definite rule, and more, their pictures too were following a definite pattern. Going back to the candidate list published by the chief election office confirmed it. There definitely is a pattern, and it is not that difficult to follow. And hidden in this pattern is the clue on how the polls would go.
Being simple and based on extensive research using high-end statistics software and a lot more dedicated man hours makes this prediction stand apart from the rest. We considered 3 simple questions to come up with our scoring chart for each candidate. The higher a candidate scores, greater the probability that he wins. Here are the questions we asked –
- Does the candidate adorn a beard?
- Yes! – The chance that he wins just went up
- No! – Don’t worry. Check the next point.
- Is the candidate a lawyer (advocate), and uses the title ‘adv’ with his/her name?
- Yes!- Good going, double up the chance to win.
- No! – you still have one more point to check.
- Does the candidate’s initials have a ‘C’ or a ‘P’, or both?
- Yes! – Great! The chances of a win just went up by a factor of 10
- No! – hmm… no comments!
So, you get it… Score your candidate on this list. Check how many ‘yes’ he gets. It is that simple. If a candidate scores ‘Yes’ on all the above, there is no way he is going to lose. 2 points on the chart is better than 1. Doesn’t score on any, hmm.. god help him. So, that’s it. It is pen and paper time. Score your candidates and wait for the results, and see how good the prediction works… and yes.. you could let me know on how your candidates scored and how the prediction worked below…